The Official Weather Forecasting Blog

Normally I Don’t predict rain showers simply cause it’s hard to predict. Theres alot of things that have to come together. Normally during the summer, we rarely see organized Low Pressure system so any showers are reliant on Cold Fronts. Cold Fronts help bring instability in the warm and cold air masses which converge at that boundary. Warn air rising over the Cold front will cool and condense making for the good chance of rain. Well a weak but still a cold front is moving in tonight and a slight pressure drop will bring winds out of the east making for a slight upslope flow and some instability. Now this morning, VERY little moisture was flowing up from the south. Actually the air was rather quite dry. But i noticed that during this evening that on the water vapor map that there was a slight surge of Monsoon moisture up from the south. Now if i look at wind maps and the water vapor map, if this holds through tonight and water vapor from the monsoon and some instability from the cold font combine with daytime heating, i think we up in the foot hills could see some heavy duty thunderstorms. But for denver, it’s hard to say if the storms will survive on the dry plains unless the high pressure system moves more east which it doesn’t look like doing. But i think for the mountain towns, a good rain chance will come in tomorrow. But i’ll check in the morning to see if this set up is holding much at all. If it falls apart, there will be no rain and just another hot day.

Heres the vapor Map. Look at the white areas coming up from the South West.

Heya everyone. Ok i feel alot better now seeing that what i though the storm was gonna do, is doing what it’s gonna do. I haven’t even checked 9News or any of the news stations so i don’t know what there saying. Ok. There more wrap around moisture still coming through and the Storm has slowed down some giving us the chance of 2 feet of snow and maybe 2 1/2. It’s all a matter of where you are. The Snow will continue to intensify but around tonight it should start to slow down and diminish. I’m gonna guess 2 to 4 inch per hour snowfall rates. Giving us about 12 to 28 inches of snow. But i think on average about 18 to 24 inches should fall up here. The wrap around moisture is also pulling gulf moisture up so snow totals might be a bit higher.

I think 285 will close down today. Schools will all close. And anything else thats open, will close as well.

Well, i honestly have gotten it wrong twice so far which is a bad record but i’m right with the NOAA with wrong forecasting. I looked at the maps and have thought about it and don’t see two feet of snow possible. I do know that around morning and afternoon tomorrow it’s gonna REALLY Dump fast. I’m talking 4 inches and hour fast. It’s gonna come quick and i’m pretty sure of that. But i don’t know. I think i’m gonna take a break on this one and let the NOAA handle it about.

Well, i’ve been keeping a very very close eye on this latest storm. It turning into a very descent Low pressure system and even has enough force to go against the Cornelius effect of the earth already to create strong counter-rotating winds. I’m confused and why Denver is only forecasting rain when i think a good 4 inches will fall in denver and possibly anywhere from 7 inches to a foot could fall up here.

The last what was to be a big storm had much stronger colder air in it than the warm air in New Mexico and Arizona and pushed it’s way more south missing us. This storm, NOT AH BIT. VERY warm over this weekend and a High Pressure system will keep this storm up a little more north like thought and GO right into that sweet spot. It’s not as strong as the last one but i think in the next 12 hours or until tonight, are forecast can CHANGE ALOT!!!!!

The reason, I see Two High Pressure Systems, and the Low Right in between. I also see Gulf moisture STARTING to flow into Texas. Once the Low moves a little more east and the warm air in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, keep it up north and move it into that SWEET spot, this Low could become very strong and intensify in matter of a few hours. If that Low connects with that Gulf moisture flowing up, something big is gonna happen, and i honestly in my deepest gut think so. I overshot the last one simply because i listen to the News forecasters more than what i felt. Now i’m not listening to them, i’m just looking at the facts, the maps, and i’m making my own judgment off of this. This will be during the night and we won’t know till morning whether i was right or wrong. But i guess will see.

I honestly think this storm will give us anywhere from 7 inches to 14 inches and i really think Denver will at least get 3 inches, but i think Denver will get 5 or so. But i could be totally wrong. So this is just off my gut. Hopefully i got this right.

But if this storm does the same thing as the last one, THEN THE ICE AGE IS REALLY STARTING. LOL

Ok, i misjudged but i thought what happened would not happen. The cold air from the north was much colder and stronger to sack the Low south so it could keep feeding up on warm air. By 8:00AM the track shifted 200 miles south of the track. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE, AND ERROR in forecasting.

9News, 4News, 7News, Fox News, Me, we all got it wrong and no weather model saw how cold the air was going to be. Cold sir sacked it south. IF the warm air in south like predicted stayed strong and warm, which it got cold, would of kept the storm to the north and us a butt load of snow. But the warm air was not warm enough and let the cold air to sack even farther and where the cold air/warm air boundary, goes the LOW goes.

So, do you guys still like me?